In Full Boom
Economy got you down? Change may be on the way.
URL:
http://entrepreneur.com/magazine/entrepreneur/2005/april/76676.html
Harry S. Dent Jr. forecast the '90s boom when others were
crying doom. Now the Miami Beach, Florida, economist says we're
entering another, even bigger boom, which will be followed by a
bust rivaling the Great Depression. Once again, Dent, who makes his
case in The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit From
the Greatest Boom in History: 2005-2009 (Free Press, $26),
opposes the consensus view, which foresees a more challenging
economic environment.
Dent discounts worries about interest rates, oil prices and
terrorism to focus on demographic trends and technology cycles. In
the last half of this decade, he notes, the baby boom generation
will reach its peak spending years. Simultaneously, technologies
including broadband wireless will reach 90 percent penetration.
This combination, in his view, will drive the Dow Jones industrial
average to 35,000 and create rich business opportunities.
Dent has missed before--notably, he expected a far more modest
downturn from 2000 to 2002 than what occurred. But no
matter--"Even if we're only half right and the next boom
is somewhat subdued because of terrorism or oil prices, it would
mean a pretty darn healthy economy," he argues.
Entrepreneurs should focus on producing high-quality, customized
goods and invest in technology to permit higher productivity in a
tighter labor market, Dent says. Most important, entrepreneurs
should prepare to sell their businesses or hook up with bigger
partners before the boom ends in 2010. Says Dent, "You have
five years to make a difference and then get paid for it."
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