A knowledge-based economy: new directions of macromodelling.(Report)

In addition to their cognitive advantages, after appropriate verification the above models could be used for applicative purposes. The main type of application is computer simulations generating characteristics of the analysed systems and allowing the construction of long-term development scenarios. Owing to that, various decision-making and opinion-giving bodies would be provided with a tool enabling them to assess the quantitative effects of growth scenarios. Such assessment has not been available to them so far.

The time horizon of these and earlier scenario analyses could be moved further into the future, from the year 2025 until 2040, if various studies on the model's resistance to various internal and external shocks using predominantly the multiplier analysis made such an approach legitimate.

Final Comments

The problems we have raised will be further studied also by the Lodz modelling centre within a broad network of international co-operation. The preliminary outcomes of the presented research promise more results that will cast new light on at least some of the discussed problems.

(1) The distinctive features of a knowledge-based economy can be described in more general terms. For instance, A.B. Czyzewski, M. Kolasa distinguish the following categories that "approximate the level and capability of applying knowledge and new technologies: GERD- total R&D spending (%ofGDP), ICT-expenditures on information technologies (% of GDP), EPO - numbers of patent applications submitted to the European Patent Office by investor's country (per 1 million of population), INT - the number of Internet servers (per 1,000 of population), EDU - percentage of the working age population with tertiary education, EXP - share of the high-tech branches in the exports of the manufacturing industry" (Zienkowski 2003, p. 33 and next). closes with recommendations to build satellite models for the research and educational sectors.

(2) Results of simulation analyses based on the model drew the attention of the Government Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS) and the Forecast Committee "Polska 2000 Plus", Polish Academy of Sciences. production function as equal to effective output (observable), not to mention issues relating to the choice of output indicators (value added versus gross output).

(3) See Jorgenson et al (2000), Collechia and Schreyer (2002) and van Leeuwen and van der Wiel (2003). indicators of fixed capital are applied. Similarly, specific quality characteristics of labour input are defined in the framework of models of the production possibility frontier. (Jorgenson 2000). In addition, it has become a common approach to treat human capital as a separate, additional factor in the production function (Benhabib and Spiegel 1994).

(4) Xu and Wang obtained following TFP elasticities with respect to the stock of foreign R&D: for import of capital goods -0.245 (0.032), for import of intermediate goods - 0.020 (0.023), for total imports - 0.017 (0.014) (applying shares of imports in total imports), and for import of capital goods - 0.09 (0.009), when ratios of imports to value added were applied. The estimates of standard errors (in brackets) clearly indicate that elasticities arc statistically significant only when the investment goods are used. imported intermediate and capital goods. However, they directly add to the stock of domestic knowledge.

(5) In his study on the impact of human capital on developing countries, Engelbrecht (2002) accounted for the indirect R&D spillovers using as weights the import of machinery and equipment.

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