It would be an understatement to say 2002 was a year of
uncertainty. But it's over, so let's look ahead. 2003 looks
like . . . well, at the moment it looks much the same as last year.
But that's not going to stop us from trying to figure out
what's next. Since that's not a task I want to tackle
alone, we asked a few experts to share their insights.
Last year on this page, business consultant Elaine S. Peck (who
also happens to be a professional psychic) and her colleague,
Carroll Eileen, predicted that in 2002, "things will get worse
before they get better." For 2003, they believe that while the
economy will show signs of a slow (very slow) recovery, overall,
our economic doldrums will continue. Money will remain hard to come
by for business owners, whether for start-up or expansion. Personal
and business debt will soar.
Overall, they think many of us "will be ruled by fear"
this year. While they see several major industries (like timber)
suffering more than others, there is a bright spot on the business
horizon: escapism. "Americans are in a runaway mood,"
says Peck, and anything designed to help them escape will do well
in 2003. Entertainment-related businesses and products such as toys
will thrive. And they believe this will be a "fair" year
for luxury goods and services. (For the scoop on how you can grab
your share of this market, make sure you read the May 2003 issue of
Entrepreneur.)
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Personal finance gurus Ken and Daria Dolan, hosts of the wildly
popular syndicated radio show The Dolans, and authors of the new
book from Doubleday Don't Mess With My Money, report
that the consensus among 25 CEOs at a recent lunch was
"guarded optimism." The Dolans agree with that
assessment, with some caveats: "If interest rates remain
steady, as we believe they will, that bodes well for both
businesses and consumers, since it will help control costs for
small businesses. We don't believe there will be a return to
double-digit increases in business spending, despite a moderate
growth in GDP (in the 2 to 2.5 percent range). We expect continued
weakness in the stock market as investor pessimism continues. The
one word overhanging all matters economic: uncertainty."
Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein is a bit more
optimistic, predicting GDP growth of about 3.5 percent. But he
cautions, "Don't look for a better stock market." And
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com, believes the economy
will "gain traction" as 2003 progresses. Zandi says that
while small businesses will continue to be tested (especially early
in the year), they will fare "a bit better than larger
businesses" because small businesses are less leveraged. You
can read more from Goldstein, Zandi and other economic experts on
our Web site at www.entrepreneur.com/hotcenter.
Now for my predictions. In 2003, Entrepreneur is going to
bring you even more of the information you need to grow your
business-the smart way. We start, in this issue, by bringing you
several new columns. Check out "Net Sales" (in
Marketing), "Personal Finance" (found in Money),
"Creative Zone" (in Management) and, in Tech, you'll
find "Solutions," which comes to you from the folks at
CRN, one of the country's most well-respected technology
trade magazines.
For even more up-to-the-minute information, check us out on the
Web at www.entrepreneur.com.
With this issue, Entrepreneur's circulation increases
to 550,000 a month (our readership remains around 2 million
monthly). In fact, Capell's Circulation Report, the
premiere magazine circulation newsletter, just named
Entrepreneur one of the Top 20 "Best Performers in
Circulation" over the past 20 years. We're in good company
here-the list also includes such magazine giants as
Architectural Digest, Cosmopolitan, InStyle,
People and Vanity Fair.
While we are so proud to be on this list, we know we owe it to
you, our readers. Our best way to thank you is to continue to bring
you the best magazine for small and midsized businesses, and we
promise to do exactly that in what we hope will be a happy,
prosperous and peaceful 2003.