IRENA: On the State of Renewables in 2024 The historic UAE Consensus makes clear, in black and white, that we will not limit global warming unless we transition away from fossil fuels and, crucially, triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030.
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There is no silver bullet to the climate crisis or the energy transition. What we do know, with utmost certainty, however, is that renewable energy is our greatest hope on both of these fronts. But right now, success hangs in the balance. The historic UAE Consensus makes clear, in black and white, that we will not limit global warming unless we transition away from fossil fuels and, crucially, triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030.
This target, adopted from in the International Renewable Energy Agency's (IRENA) long-advocated 1.5°C Scenario pathway, means that in six years time, the world must have installed 11 terrawatts (TW) – that's 11,000 gigawatts (GW) – of renewable energy. While this watershed moment for the UN's annual climate talks at COP28, represented a major boon for energy and climate progress, a clear and objective analysis of our energy transition and renewable energy is needed.
Because, right now – we are falling short.
Time is of the essence, we are operating within a code red environment for humanity. Any delay or shortfall in meeting the targets to triple renewable energy capacity by the end of this decade only exacerbates the enormity of the challenge we face.
IRENA's annual monitoring of progress towards the tripling renewables target shows that less than 480 GW of new renewable power capacity was deployed in 2023. That compares to the 1000 GW that is required every year, if we are to meet our targets.
Falling short by more than 50% of the annual target means that needed capacity deployment is only getting higher. We are now looking at 1,100 GW of capacity additions each year for the remainder of the decade to keep 1.5°C within reach.
On this metric, the energy transition is off-track. And every day we remain off-track, the window for action closes, and quicker.
The good news is that renewable energy capabilities are growing, and fast. Driven mainly by solar power, costs – to operate and consume – are constantly being driven down by the ever-increasing scale of solar solutions. Time to market is also rapidly improving. For example, 20 years ago, in 2004, it took the world one year to install 1 GW of solar power capacity. In 2023, it took one day to install 1 GW of global solar power.
The vast majority of the increases in global renewable generation capacity are down to the rapid uptake and scaling of solar power. Solar accounted for 73% of the renewable growth last year, reaching 1,419 GW (1.4 TW), followed by wind power with 24% share of renewable expansion.
As such, renewable deployment is moving in the right direction, if not yet fast enough. IRENA's "Renewable Capacity Statistics 2024" shows that 2023 set a new record in renewables deployment in the power sector, reaching a total global capacity of 3,870 GW (3.87 TW).
That's not all. As graphs from this report show, renewable accounted for 86% of all new capacity additions in 2023. However, this growth is unevenly distributed across the world, with Asia leading the way – representing a 69% share (326 G) of this expansion. This glaring gap revealed in the data shows that, at the current rate, the energy transition will still leave people behind – mainly those living in climate frontline communities. This is a reality we cannot accept. Those who did the least to contribute to climate change are the ones suffering most from its impacts.
Africa, for instance, witnessed an increase of just 4.6%, reaching a total capacity of 62 GW. Elsewhere, the Middle East saw a 16.6% increase, Oceania a 9.4% increase, and the Group of Seven (G7) increased capacity by 7.6%, adding 69.4 GW in 2023. The G20 nations, meanwhile, increased capacity by 15%, reaching 3,084 GW by 2023. For the world to reach over 11 TW for the tripling target requires the G20 members alone to reach 9.4 TW of renewable power capacity by 2030.
Achieving a successful energy transition that leaves no on behind requires collective global action, which must remain consistent, coordinated, collaborative and focused on four key areas: investments, infrastructure, policymaking and deployment.
IRENA's 1.5°C Scenario recommends a massive scaling up of financing and strong international collaboration to speed up the energy transition, with the needs of developing countries a key priority. Investments are needed in power grids, generation, flexibility and storage. The pathway towards tripled renewable power capacity by 2030 requires a strengthening of institutions, policies and skills.
Global investment in clean technologies is on track to hit $2 trillion this year, almost twice the amount being spent on fossil fuels. Even so, this is still less than half the estimated $4.5 trillion of annual investment needed in clean and renewable energy solutions by 2030 to achieve global net zero goals.
Meanwhile, public finance is shrinking, underscoring the need for more strategic application and use. A new financial architecture for international co-operation that ensures every actor plays their part in a global solution, is urgently needed.
Multilateral development banks and international financial institutions have a critical role to play, given the amount of capital that needs to be allocated to develop the infrastructure that will enable private investment.
Forging impactful partnerships is crucial in this regard. For instance, IRENA's Energy Transition Accelerator Financing (ETAF) platform has, since its launch at COP26 in Glasgow, has received pledges of more than $4 billion from global financial partners to scale up renewable energy projects that contribute to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in developing countries, while also bringing benefits to communities through enhanced energy access and security, and promoting economic growth and diversification.
Most recently, IRENA announced a landmark partnership with Africa50, the pan-African infrastructure investor and asset management group, which saw Africa50 pledge up to $100 million to fund and co-finance renewables-based energy transition projects and infrastructure across Africa through the ETAF platform.
We must also overcome the structural and systemic barriers that impede progress by modernising and expanding infrastructure, establishing regulatory frameworks fit for the renewables era, and building institutional and human resource capabilities.
In the UAE, we are building on a two-decade track record of making renewable energy affordable and accessible. Now home to three of the world's largest and lowest-cost solar plants, the UAE has become a reliable global partner and critical driver of the energy transition.
Since hosting COP28 UAE in 2023, the international community has rallied around the targets set by the UAE Consensus, including the headline of tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by the end of this decade.
For the UAE, the energy transition is the foundation of our fight against climate change. And we are confident of fulfilling our commitment to the UAE Consensus established at COP28, with the twin goals of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by the end of the decade.
Currently, we have 6.5 gigawatts of installed renewable energy, primarily from solar PV installations. We have another 3.3 gigawatts currently under development. And by 2030, the UAE is on track to triple renewable energy capacity to 14 gigawatts, with more than 19 gigawatts of total clean energy.
The UAE's hydrogen sector is also rapidly gaining momentum. Last year, the UAE updated its National Hydrogen Strategy to position the UAE as a top global producer of low-carbon hydrogen by 2031.
As you know, the UAE is never content to rest on our laurels. We always seek to convene decision-makers, experts, and change-makers to challenge the status quo, and always do more. We believe that a practical, pragmatic and inclusive energy transition can be achieved through a solutions-oriented approach to multilateral dialogues and partnerships.And we firmly believe that we can, in collaboration with the international community, develop and deploy solar, wind, geothermal and green hydrogen at the pace and scale needed around the world, to limit global warming below the 1.5C threshold. And if we can do this, as part of a collective global mission, it will be one of humanity's greatest and most important achievements.
"For the UAE, the energy transition is the foundation of our fight against climate change. And we are confident of fulfilling our commitment to the UAE Consensus established at COP28, with the twin goals of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by the end of the decade." Dr. Nawal Al-Hosany, UAE's permanent representative to IRENA.
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This article was originally published on Lucidity Insights, a partner of Entrepreneur Middle East in developing special reports on the Middle East and Africa's tech and entrepreneurial ecosystems.
