Recognizing Opportunities in Times of Uncertainty Global oil markets remain volatile, but for traders with a keen eye, opportunities are still out there, according to seasoned American oil and gas investor Gaurav Srivastava.

With the ongoing green transition, which has become top priority in Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States, Global oil demand is projected to slow down to an annual rise of only 0.4 mbpd until 2027, standing in stark contrast to the 1.6 mbpd rise which the market saw up until 2023. The changing energy landscape however, still has a long way to go until it is one which is no longer reliant at all on oil and gas in the way which it is today. Successfully navigating the changing energy landscape, alongside finding opportunities, is possible, according to Gaurav Srivastava, with capital discipline and focusing on the low carbon footprint projects to which the international energy community is transitioning.

Although many have highlighted the emergence of new technologies as the primary disruptor of traditional energy markets, geopolitical issues and macroeconomic variables cannot be ignored. Recently, Brent crude Futures hit almost $75 a barrel while US crude futures passed the $71 mark, as tensions rose in the Middle East between Israel and Iran as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to Gaurav Srivastava, who giving an American perspective, believes that the rise in prices was also a product of the US "jumbo" interest rate cut announcement by the Fed which took many by surprise, signaling to the market that it will support demand alongside a slight reduction in American output following up on Hurricane Francine (12% of US oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut). For those unfamiliar, the interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve last week of half a percentage point, although surprising, is seen as a tool for encouraging economic activity as well as demand for more energy. Gaurav Srivastava believes it may also the indicative of the fact that experts at the central bank are also anticipating a slowing job market.

Many analysts have focused on the ongoing American energy transition, believing that slowing demand, alongside stable or even increased production, will reduce energy prices in the immediate term. Gaurav Srivastava is skeptical, stating, " American efforts to cut carbon emissions in half by 2030 simply are not realistic. Sure, solar energy has made progress but renewables more broadly have not been adapted as quickly as people expected".

On a positive note, power companies last year only consumed 386 million tons of coal, a low number not seen since Richard Nixon was president. Nuclear power facilities have taken center stage, producing more power in the United States than coal plants for the first time last year. That doesn't, however, mean that America is going completely green anytime in the near future. The generation of natural gas, encouraged by cheap prices and less coal burning, accounted for 41% of American power, up from 37% in 2019. For reference nuclear energy accounted for a mere 19%. Looking at renewables more broadly, wind generation fell 4%, mainly due to unpredictably low wind speeds.

Despite all of the uncertainty or perhaps because of it, investor Gaurav Srivastava spots opportunities where others do not. Artificial intelligence as it relates to energy production is one of them. According to Gaurav Srivastava, " The future of the global energy market is going to require a smart system which can monitor and encourage smarter use of resources as well as real-time management systems which are both affordable and adaptable. This is where the potential for artificial intelligence comes in. And while we are seeing plenty of progress on the AI front in a range of industries, progress in the energy industry is sorely lacking. There will be tremendous financial opportunities for those who enter this field early, helping support the future of the energy market while managing price volatility".

For this, new and still developing international partnerships are going to be needed, as is outside the box thinking in terms of how already existing technological capacity can help power our future. While all of this is still up in the air, and developing, the main thing Gaurav Srivastava is certain about is the centrality of American leadership on the energy front.